Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.